NBA / Evidence before outcomes

The research board.

A clear view of what we know, what is missing, and what still needs to be tested.

Historical totals / Coverage only

Historical totals candidates

Operator-reported · independently unqualified

Collection-stage snapshot: 2026-10-04T15:07:27.963967+00:00. These are earlier collection-stage candidates, not the later 6,059-game evaluated population.

6,083 / 6,150 candidate games

Five regular seasons · 30 teams · 150 team-season cells. Candidates are not betting signals or a validated strategy.

Opening status: unverified. First observed snapshots are not proof of bookmaker opening quotes.
Timing status: unverified. Provider timestamp semantics and independent pregame identity/timing qualification remain unresolved.
Summary accounting only, not raw quote validation. No evaluation, new picks or forward outcomes are implied.

67 excluded games: 63 with no accepted pregame quotes (operator category; pregame status remains unverified), and 4 with ambiguous provider identity.

2021-22: 1,226 / 1,230 candidates; 4 excluded
2022-23: 1,175 / 1,230 candidates; 55 excluded
2023-24: 1,230 / 1,230 candidates; 0 excluded
2024-25: 1,226 / 1,230 candidates; 4 excluded
2025-26: 1,226 / 1,230 candidates; 4 excluded

All 150 team-season cells

Operator-reported candidate / scheduled team appearances. Each game appears for two teams.
Team	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26
ATL	82 / 82	80 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82
BKN	81 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
BOS	81 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
CHA	82 / 82	78 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
CHI	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
CLE	82 / 82	79 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
DAL	81 / 82	79 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82
DEN	82 / 82	77 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
DET	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82
GSW	81 / 82	80 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
HOU	82 / 82	78 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82
IND	82 / 82	80 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82
LAC	82 / 82	79 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
LAL	81 / 82	77 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
MEM	82 / 82	74 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82
MIA	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82
MIL	82 / 82	80 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82
MIN	82 / 82	74 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
NOP	82 / 82	80 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
NYK	82 / 82	76 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82
OKC	82 / 82	78 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	81 / 82
ORL	82 / 82	79 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	80 / 82
PHI	81 / 82	80 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
PHX	81 / 82	76 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
POR	82 / 82	76 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
SAC	82 / 82	79 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
SAS	82 / 82	78 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	81 / 82
TOR	82 / 82	76 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
UTA	81 / 82	76 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82	82 / 82
WAS	82 / 82	76 / 82	82 / 82	81 / 82	82 / 82

Source snapshot and hash provenance

Source generated at 2026-10-04T15:07:27.963967+00:00. Static historical snapshot, not live coverage.

Unchanged originals are staged outside the public web folder. Original SHA-256 hashes:

coverage.json: 77760d8d3b89105141b111aacfdac73690a154a90386ee54683470315a331d79
team_season_coverage.csv: bad5924d8fd6d16888862c88cd1f7695809f93629bc71f382a36c4a63fbb44ab
missing_or_unpaired_games.csv: 80d507b96e40a024470b35306c751d27ef9c8ba8909a5218b794f2c46c461a7d

Derived public aggregate (JSON) · Original versus derived hash manifest

Hashes bind bytes, not source truth. Team appearances reconcile to twice the game count; gap identities reconcile to team-season shortfalls.

Historical totals / Retrospective results

Both betting strategies lost

Operator-reported retrospective results · Independent acceptance pending

Five regular seasons, 2021–22 through 2025–26, targeting all 30 teams. This is not full league completeness.

6,059 / 6,150 evaluated games

91 exclusions: 55 with no provider quotes + 36 with ambiguous provider identity. Separate from the earlier collection-stage coverage above.

Latest eligible snapshots are not proven openings. Same-book, same-line, same-update-time pairs are operator-reported; historical availability and execution remain unverified.
All seasons were previously examined. The first three are development; the last two are retrospective confirmation, not an untouched holdout.
Summary display, not raw-bet validation, strategy approval or a forward paper record. No profitability claim or betting recommendation.

Corrected model

Eligible opportunities: 6,059
Bets: 4,548
Wins: 2,291
Losses: 2,219
Pushes: 38
Net return: -136.49 units
ROI (net / units staked): -3.00%
Reported 95% ROI interval: -5.89% to -0.21%
Max daily-close drawdown: 168.21 units

Half model / half market

Eligible opportunities: 6,059
Bets: 3,155
Wins: 1,615
Losses: 1,515
Pushes: 25
Net return: -46.66 units
ROI (net / units staked): -1.48%
Reported 95% ROI interval: -4.92% to +2.05%
Max daily-close drawdown: 101.14 units

No-vig market baseline

Eligible opportunities: 6,059
Bets: 0
Wins: 0
Losses: 0
Pushes: 0
Net return: +0.00 units
ROI (net / units staked): Unavailable (zero bets)
Reported 95% ROI interval: Unavailable (zero bets)
Max daily-close drawdown: 0.00 units

One unit staked per bet, at most one bet per game per method. The baseline placed zero bets; its ROI and interval are unavailable, not 0%.

Reported intervals: 2,000 game-date cluster bootstrap resamples, fixed seed 417. They do not capture all model-selection or season-regime uncertainty. Drawdown uses daily-close equity, not intraday peaks.

Original summary and derived hash provenance

Run 1503e03be0fc4892a621ea215f4ecf07 · snapshot 2026-10-04T17:15:06.514730+00:00.

Original finished.json SHA-256: ef6168eaeb7d3d8fdf844509db58f4f740994dd6e6cdd8ccf5fac203e16b0be1. Unchanged original staged outside the public web folder.

Derived public results (JSON) · Original versus derived hashes

Hashes bind bytes, not truth. Counts and returns reconcile across summary seasons and periods; intervals and drawdown are copied from the reported aggregate, not independently recomputed from bets.

Data unavailable — waiting for a valid snapshot. No picks loaded.

01 / Historical evidence

Retrospective research

No historical summaries loaded. Minutes-model evidence is not betting validation.

02 / Research signals

Quote & forecast board

No research signals. Actual quotes and forecasts are unavailable.

03 / Forward evidence

Forward paper record

0 verified forward observations

No persisted ledger is connected. Performance is unvalidated.