A basketball reason
Our own player and team analysis must explain the selection.
THE SEASON AHEAD / 2026–27
The long game.
A few season lines worth a closer look.
Here’s what interests us, what the market says, and what still needs checking.
NBAI RESEARCH SHORTLIST
What’s on our radar.
Team scenarios give us a place to start. These are conditional research leans, not validated betting recommendations. Individual points, assists and rebounds live on the player research page.
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How injuries enter the season projections
200 injury-scenario seasons are paired with 200 healthy diagnostic seasons across all 30 teams. Historical injury/illness absences occur in spells, affected rotations are rebuilt, and team impact changes with available players.
The health history covers five seasons, but incomplete records can understate absences. A later-season diagnostic also underpredicted recorded absences in both test seasons; these rates are not calibrated. Current medical status and recovery dates are not inferred. Prior-season team ratings already contain some health effects, so these adjustments still need calibration. All-healthy leans have been withdrawn; scenario averages do not establish a betting edge.
All 30 team projections and reproducible inputs · Health scenario evidence and assumptions
KALSHI / SEASON WATCHLIST
Find your angle.
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Kalshi quotes refresh about once a minute while the page is visible. If refresh fails, we label the retained snapshot. The market reference is the YES bid/ask midpoint when available; it is not our forecast. Buy quotes exclude fees and do not guarantee a fill. Win thresholds overlap and should not be added together.
What makes a pick worth sharing?
A price that makes sense
Compare an independently supported forecast against an available price, including costs.
A clear uncertainty
Roster changes, injuries and model limitations belong alongside the case for a pick.