Archived workflow replay

Historical plumbing demonstration · Not a current pick or forward result

This example links a stored book quote, a saved point estimate, an immutable pass and the observed result. Missing evidence remains visible.

Game	Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic
Player	Cameron Johnson
Archived quote	draftkings · over 14.5 points · -125 American
Quote timestamp	2024-10-25T11:04:38Z
Saved point estimate	13.78
Decision	PASS — historical replay
Recorded now at	2026-10-04T01:49:50.631626+00:00
Actual points	12
Bet settlement	Not applicable — no stake
Forward picks created	0

Single-example plumbing verification, not league-wide evaluation.
Existing props features use retrospective availability; this is not a reconstructed pregame prediction.
No probability, calibrated uncertainty, source download receipt, or profitable strategy is established.

Input hashes and decision evidence

{
  "schema_version": "nba-archived-replay/v1",
  "classification": "retrospective_plumbing_demonstration",
  "inputs_sha256": {
    "data/raw/props_odds/0022400077_player_points_open.json": "dab346607363062ccbc45ec3a2db9afd88a85626678cd26ddd867e02298a0bf4",
    "data/features/props_predictions.parquet": "02bb54d51734544d3ee61bda8ed65886564dcfe54083b96b9a3d4c5d0b3729f3",
    "data/parquet/player_games.parquet": "b345c5845306198d44ded28f3e695d7cf4e8b65d1dea1ac6662c167a10db0357",
    "data/parquet/games.parquet": "9902080922ac678dc3f87c0ab038d3021bd6bcbc69ce4203c81b678d498a06cc",
    "agent-workspace/scripts/research_replay.py": "f0a00d04c589528a1f37255e6cfadd3d242f5ae455ec9d233eb14379a82b0ed8"
  },
  "selection": "Fixed game/player/book example chosen to test wiring, not selected for profitability.",
  "game": {
    "id": "0022400077",
    "home": "Orlando Magic",
    "away": "Brooklyn Nets",
    "starts_at": "2024-10-25T23:10:00Z"
  },
  "player": "Cameron Johnson",
  "quote": {
    "bookmaker_id": "draftkings",
    "bookmaker_event_id": "7cdee69a4e2927c0b2c17e7bfbfd6ab0",
    "market_id": "player_points",
    "player_id": 1629661,
    "game_id": "0022400077",
    "side": "over",
    "line": 14.5,
    "price_format": "american",
    "price": -125,
    "quote_at": "2024-10-25T11:04:38Z",
    "source_ref": "data/raw/props_odds/0022400077_player_points_open.json",
    "payload_hash": "dab346607363062ccbc45ec3a2db9afd88a85626678cd26ddd867e02298a0bf4"
  },
  "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-10-25T11:05:39Z",
  "original_retrieved_at": null,
  "source_family": "The Odds API historical response already on disk; original download time and authenticity were not independently verified.",
  "forecast": {
    "point_estimate": 13.777599383753065,
    "model_version": "saved-props-file:02bb54d51734544d3ee61bda8ed65886564dcfe54083b96b9a3d4c5d0b3729f3",
    "source_ref": "data/features/props_predictions.parquet",
    "created_at": null,
    "input_cutoff": null
  },
  "decision": {
    "id": "ec50a99f3641e6dd03def426e6bc054c205185f1247997933c1c8bf4774bdf41",
    "action": "pass",
    "recorded_at": "2026-10-04T01:49:50.631626+00:00",
    "record_class": "retrospective",
    "reasons": [
      "HISTORICAL_REPLAY",
      "PREGAME_PROVENANCE_UNVERIFIED",
      "RETROSPECTIVE_AVAILABILITY",
      "PROBABILITY_UNAVAILABLE",
      "UNCERTAINTY_UNAVAILABLE",
      "NOT_AN_APPROVED_STRATEGY"
    ]
  },
  "settlement": {
    "state": "not_applicable",
    "actual_points": 12,
    "stake_units": 0,
    "net_units": 0,
    "meaning": "A pass has no bet settlement; actual outcome retained only to verify identity/result linkage."
  },
  "reconciliation": {
    "opportunities_in_demo": 1,
    "recorded_passes": 1,
    "processing_gaps": [],
    "archive_receipt_sha256": "1d74df86a557988d35002a79df231317f4615fbdbe53ab8bce5273d2aaf5b0b1"
  },
  "forward_summary": {
    "picks_created_by_demo": 0,
    "stake_units": 0,
    "net_units": 0
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Single-example plumbing verification, not league-wide evaluation.",
    "Existing props features use retrospective availability; this is not a reconstructed pregame prediction.",
    "No probability, calibrated uncertainty, source download receipt, or profitable strategy is established."
  ]
}