{
  "schemaVersion": "nba-research-board/v1",
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-04T02:43:19Z",
  "historicalEvidence": [
    {
      "id": "frozen-minutes-population",
      "title": "Minutes benchmark \u00b7 five completed seasons",
      "summary": "2021\u201322 through 2025\u201326; 30-team schedule reconciliation recorded. 171,428 rows: 159,613 valid labels and 11,815 unknown outcomes retained. On valid labels, boosting MAE 5.973 minutes / RMSE 8.713; rolling baseline MAE 6.711 / RMSE 9.593. Retrospective minutes research, not betting validation.",
      "sourceRef": "Experiment 851dca99c71443369e5f729ddc95d780; manifest SHA-256 780a192a3f153d81db3a3281b1a96a37b3ab5d99b5ae5e3b44dd976208db4124; original sensitivity report SHA-256 d427ec6f1f9e7fd605a56a2760c980537c14c3f01c7001a0369dfda569b4c95b; derived web/research-evidence.json SHA-256 78f6b4de12bba7ed76df226da5b870633c809319b711c0be4ddee32c6127a8a0."
    },
    {
      "id": "frozen-minutes-limitations",
      "title": "Missing outcomes and remaining checks",
      "summary": "Boosting minus rolling paired MAE: deterministic missing-label bounds [-0.942, -0.433] minutes. These are not confidence intervals. Remaining checks: historical pregame input provenance; corrected-history build lineage; saved chronological training cutoff receipts; sampling uncertainty; market-price validation and future paper record. Fixed retrospective predictions; deterministic missing-label bounds, not confidence intervals, future accuracy, betting profitability or deployed content. Frozen-output hashes were recorded now, not at original generation.",
      "sourceRef": "Experiment 851dca99c71443369e5f729ddc95d780; manifest SHA-256 780a192a3f153d81db3a3281b1a96a37b3ab5d99b5ae5e3b44dd976208db4124; original sensitivity report SHA-256 d427ec6f1f9e7fd605a56a2760c980537c14c3f01c7001a0369dfda569b4c95b; derived web/research-evidence.json SHA-256 78f6b4de12bba7ed76df226da5b870633c809319b711c0be4ddee32c6127a8a0."
    }
  ],
  "researchSignals": [],
  "forwardRecords": []
}