Archived snapshot — not live. Research only; no strategy is validated and no orders are placed.
Preseason projections are unvalidated extrapolations, not betting recommendations.
Statistical uncertainty is unknown. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Displayed depth is not a fill. Opposite-side bids define asks; the midpoint is a reference,
not an executable price or proven fair probability. Full order-book depth and queue position
are not present in this report; only the scenario's consumed levels are shown.
This saved report does not refresh live. Stale prices are not actionable.
Hypothetical net values assume normal completion and settlement, not realized returns.
Actual Kalshi settlements, including non-binary resolutions, are required for performance.
Contracts on the same game are correlated.
Only observations present in the captured report are shown, including unavailable rows. Markets outside the report limit have not been reconstructed.
Fee assumptions and version
Fee version / effective date
2026-07-07
Fee source
https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf
Series fee type
quadratic_with_maker_fees
Series fee multiplier
1
Coefficient
0.07
Rounding
fee plus position cost rounded up to $0.0001 per displayed level
Reserve basis
larger of calculated level fees and cent-ceiling per whole contract; a scenario, not guaranteed execution fees
Fee limitations
Published formula says centicent while illustrative tables use cents; report both. Fractional fill fragmentation and account-specific fees remain unverified.
Estimates and reserves are scenarios, not actual charged fees.
Golden State wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Golden State does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Golden State wins the Golden State vs Los Angeles C Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5700
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5800
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5800
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1706
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.0000
Kalshi midpoint reference
57.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
38.07%
Break-even including reserve
60.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.1932
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.6932
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5800
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4200
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4300
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4300
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1716
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.5000
Kalshi midpoint reference
42.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
61.93%
Break-even including reserve
45.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.6932
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$1.1932
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4300
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Los Angeles C wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Los Angeles C does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Los Angeles C wins the Golden State vs Los Angeles C Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4200
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4300
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4300
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1716
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.5000
Kalshi midpoint reference
42.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
61.93%
Break-even including reserve
45.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.6932
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$1.1932
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4300
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5700
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5800
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5800
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1706
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.0000
Kalshi midpoint reference
57.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
38.07%
Break-even including reserve
60.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.1932
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.6932
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5800
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Denver wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Denver does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Denver wins the Utah vs Denver Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5600
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5700
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1716
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
56.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
88.60%
Break-even including reserve
59.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$2.9595
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$2.4595
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4400
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4480
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1731
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.6800
Kalshi midpoint reference
43.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
11.40%
Break-even including reserve
46.80%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-3.5395
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3300
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-4.0395
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
2 contracts @ $0.4400
8 contracts @ $0.4500
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Utah does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Utah wins the Utah vs Denver Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4400
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4400
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1725
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.6000
Kalshi midpoint reference
43.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
11.40%
Break-even including reserve
46.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-3.4595
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-3.9595
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4400
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5600
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5700
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1716
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
56.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
88.60%
Break-even including reserve
59.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$2.9595
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$2.4595
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Atlanta wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Atlanta does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Atlanta wins the Memphis vs Atlanta Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.6100
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6400
Observed spread
$0.0300
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6400
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1613
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.6000
Kalshi midpoint reference
62.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
83.50%
Break-even including reserve
66.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.7502
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$1.2502
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6400
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.3600
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.3900
Observed spread
$0.0300
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.3900
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1666
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.1000
Kalshi midpoint reference
37.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
16.50%
Break-even including reserve
41.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.4502
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.9502
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.3900
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Memphis wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Memphis does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Memphis wins the Memphis vs Atlanta Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.3600
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.3700
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.3700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1632
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$3.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
36.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
16.50%
Break-even including reserve
39.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.2502
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.7502
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.3700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.6300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6400
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6400
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1613
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.6000
Kalshi midpoint reference
63.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
83.50%
Break-even including reserve
66.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.7502
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$1.2502
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6400
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
New York wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
New York does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If New York wins the New York vs Philadelphia Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4800
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4900
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4900
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1750
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.1000
Kalshi midpoint reference
48.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
57.90%
Break-even including reserve
51.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.6899
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.1899
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4900
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5100
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5200
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5200
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1748
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.4000
Kalshi midpoint reference
51.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
42.10%
Break-even including reserve
54.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-1.1899
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-1.6899
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5200
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Philadelphia wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Philadelphia does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Philadelphia wins the New York vs Philadelphia Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5100
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5200
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5200
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1748
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.4000
Kalshi midpoint reference
51.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
42.10%
Break-even including reserve
54.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-1.1899
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-1.6899
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5200
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4800
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4900
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4900
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1750
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.1000
Kalshi midpoint reference
48.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
57.90%
Break-even including reserve
51.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.6899
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.1899
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4900
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Detroit wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Detroit does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Detroit wins the Phoenix vs Detroit Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5700
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5900
Observed spread
$0.0200
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5900
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1694
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.1000
Kalshi midpoint reference
58.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
75.90%
Break-even including reserve
61.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.4898
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.9898
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5900
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4100
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4300
Observed spread
$0.0200
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4300
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1716
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.5000
Kalshi midpoint reference
42.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
24.10%
Break-even including reserve
45.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.0898
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.5898
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4300
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Phoenix wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Phoenix does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Phoenix wins the Phoenix vs Detroit Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4000
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4200
Observed spread
$0.0200
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4200
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1706
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.4000
Kalshi midpoint reference
41.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
24.10%
Break-even including reserve
44.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-1.9898
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.4898
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4200
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5800
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6000
Observed spread
$0.0200
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6000
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1680
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.2000
Kalshi midpoint reference
59.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
75.90%
Break-even including reserve
62.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.3898
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.8898
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6000
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Milwaukee wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Milwaukee does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Milwaukee wins the Minnesota vs Milwaukee Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.3600
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.3700
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.3700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1632
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$3.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
36.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
42.73%
Break-even including reserve
39.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.3734
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-0.1266
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.3700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.6300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6400
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6490
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1596
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.6900
Kalshi midpoint reference
63.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
57.27%
Break-even including reserve
66.90%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-0.9634
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3400
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-1.4634
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
1 contracts @ $0.6400
9 contracts @ $0.6500
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Minnesota wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Minnesota does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Minnesota wins the Minnesota vs Milwaukee Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.6300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6400
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6400
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1613
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.6000
Kalshi midpoint reference
63.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
57.27%
Break-even including reserve
66.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-0.8734
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-1.3734
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6400
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.3600
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.3700
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.3700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1632
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$3.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
36.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
42.73%
Break-even including reserve
39.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.3734
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-0.1266
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.3700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Los Angeles L wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Los Angeles L does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Los Angeles L wins the Los Angeles L vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5900
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6000
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6000
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1680
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.2000
Kalshi midpoint reference
59.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
63.16%
Break-even including reserve
62.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.1157
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-0.3843
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6000
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4000
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4100
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4100
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1694
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.3000
Kalshi midpoint reference
40.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
36.84%
Break-even including reserve
43.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-0.6157
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-1.1157
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4100
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Sacramento wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Sacramento does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Sacramento wins the Los Angeles L vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4000
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4100
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4100
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1694
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.3000
Kalshi midpoint reference
40.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
36.84%
Break-even including reserve
43.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-0.6157
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-1.1157
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4100
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5900
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6000
Observed spread
$0.0100
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6000
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1680
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.2000
Kalshi midpoint reference
59.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
63.16%
Break-even including reserve
62.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.1157
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.2500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-0.3843
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6000
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Brooklyn wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Brooklyn does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Brooklyn wins the Brooklyn vs Charlotte Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.3300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.3600
Observed spread
$0.0300
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.3600
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1613
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$3.8000
Kalshi midpoint reference
34.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
14.38%
Break-even including reserve
38.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.3622
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.8622
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.3600
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.6400
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6700
Observed spread
$0.0300
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1548
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
65.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
85.62%
Break-even including reserve
69.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.6622
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$1.1622
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Charlotte wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Charlotte does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Charlotte wins the Brooklyn vs Charlotte Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.6500
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.6900
Observed spread
$0.0400
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.6900
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1498
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$7.1000
Kalshi midpoint reference
67.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
85.62%
Break-even including reserve
71.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.4622
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.9622
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.6900
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.3100
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.3500
Observed spread
$0.0400
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.3500
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1593
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$3.7000
Kalshi midpoint reference
33.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
14.38%
Break-even including reserve
37.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.2622
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.7622
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.3500
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
New Orleans wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
New Orleans does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If New Orleans wins the New Orleans vs Oklahoma City Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.2200
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.2600
Observed spread
$0.0400
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.2600
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1347
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$2.8000
Kalshi midpoint reference
24.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
9.86%
Break-even including reserve
28.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-1.8144
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.3144
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.2600
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.7400
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.7800
Observed spread
$0.0400
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.7800
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1202
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$8.0000
Kalshi midpoint reference
76.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
90.14%
Break-even including reserve
80.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.0144
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.5144
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.7800
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Oklahoma City wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Oklahoma City does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Oklahoma City wins the New Orleans vs Oklahoma City Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.7500
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.7700
Observed spread
$0.0200
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.7880
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1170
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$8.0800
Kalshi midpoint reference
76.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
90.14%
Break-even including reserve
80.80%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$0.9344
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4800
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.4344
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
1 contracts @ $0.7700
9 contracts @ $0.7900
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.2300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.2500
Observed spread
$0.0200
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.2650
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1364
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$2.8500
Kalshi midpoint reference
24.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
9.86%
Break-even including reserve
28.50%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-1.8644
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.3644
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
5 contracts @ $0.2600
5 contracts @ $0.2700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Denver wins the specified game (normal completion).
NO meaning under normal settlement
Denver does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Denver wins the Denver vs Utah Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5400
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5800
Observed spread
$0.0400
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5800
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1706
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$6.0000
Kalshi midpoint reference
56.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
71.07%
Break-even including reserve
60.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.1069
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4000
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.6069
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5800
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4200
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4600
Observed spread
$0.0400
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4670
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1743
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.8700
Kalshi midpoint reference
44.00%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
28.93%
Break-even including reserve
48.70%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-1.9769
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.4700
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.4769
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
3 contracts @ $0.4600
7 contracts @ $0.4700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Utah does not win the specified game (normal completion).
Primary and secondary settlement rules
Primary rule
If Utah wins the Denver vs Utah Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary rule
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Secondary rules govern exceptions. Cancellation or delay may resolve to a fair price; do not infer a binary payout or refund. Actual exchange settlement is required.
YES
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.4400
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.4700
Observed spread
$0.0300
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.4700
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1744
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$4.9000
Kalshi midpoint reference
45.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
28.93%
Break-even including reserve
49.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$-2.0069
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$-2.5069
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.4700
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
NO
Side status
research_only_conditional_on_normal_settlement
Requested size (contracts)
10
Observed best bid
$0.5300
Observed ask (opposite bid derived)
$0.5600
Observed spread
$0.0300
Depth-weighted scenario price
$0.5600
Fee estimate (total)
$0.1725
Fee reserve (total)
$0.2000
All-in scenario cost
$5.8000
Kalshi midpoint reference
54.50%
NBA model probability (unvalidated)
71.07%
Break-even including reserve
58.00%
Hypothetical model net (normal settlement)
$1.3069
Hypothetical midpoint net (normal settlement)
$-0.3500
Probability haircut (sensitivity only)
5.00%
Hypothetical downside net
$0.8069
Consumed depth in scenario (not fills)
10 contracts @ $0.5600
Statistical uncertainty
Unknown / unvalidated. Sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Coverage and limitations from captured report
Research only: no Kalshi-specific historical or forward profitability evidence.
Preseason projections extrapolate regular-season/playoff ratings and do not model preseason rotations.
No injury, lineup or roster adjustment in this initial baseline.
YES/NO returns are conditional on normal completion; cancellation/fair-price settlements require actual exchange resolution.
Resting bids are converted to opposite-side asks; displayed depth is not a guaranteed fill.
Fees are estimates using current series metadata and documented rounding scenarios.
Books have observation timestamps, not exchange sequence timestamps; saved reports become stale.
Opposing-team and YES/NO contracts on the same game are correlated, not independent betting opportunities.
First version covers NBA full-game winners only; other sports, totals and props need their own models and contract mapping.