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405, "hypothetical_fills": 405, "no_fills": 0, "hypothetical_net_dollars": -30.32, "hypothetical_cost_dollars": 173.32, "hypothetical_roi": -0.17493653357950611, "net_per_candidate": { "mean": -0.0748641975308642, "game_bootstrap_95": [ -0.11966049382716047, -0.03098271604938272 ] } }, "double_coefficient_contract_cent_stress|slippage=0.05": { "candidates": 405, "hypothetical_fills": 405, "no_fills": 0, "hypothetical_net_dollars": -42.75, "hypothetical_cost_dollars": 185.75, "hypothetical_roi": -0.23014804845222073, "net_per_candidate": { "mean": -0.10555555555555556, "game_bootstrap_95": [ -0.15034814814814815, -0.06179382716049383 ] } } }, "teams": 30 }, "collection": { "generated_at": "2026-10-05T19:02:37.546964+00:00", "last_complete_cycle_at": "2026-10-05T19:02:37.300375+00:00", "collection_stale": false, "latest_cycle_failed": false, "scheduled_games": 36, "mapped_games": 36, "games_by_status": { "outside_regular_season": 33, "not_due": 3 }, "games": [ { "game_id": "401898388", "label": "MEM @ ATL", "starts_at": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401908947", "label": "PHX @ DET", "starts_at": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401914101", "label": "NY @ PHI", "starts_at": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401914102", "label": "MIN @ MIL", "starts_at": "2026-10-06T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898716", "label": "LAL @ SAC", "starts_at": "2026-10-06T02:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401901820", "label": "BKN @ CHA", "starts_at": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898389", "label": "NO @ OKC", "starts_at": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401914128", "label": "DEN @ UTAH", "starts_at": "2026-10-07T01:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898390", "label": "LAL @ GS", "starts_at": "2026-10-07T02:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401914123", "label": "MIN VS IND", "starts_at": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898391", "label": "ORL @ MEM", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401908620", "label": "MIL @ OKC", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401908939", "label": "PHX @ CHI", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401914129", "label": "GS @ POR", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898392", "label": "BOS @ CLE", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898393", "label": "NO @ MIA", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401901823", "label": "PHI @ BKN", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401906508", "label": "WSH @ NY", "starts_at": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898394", "label": "ATL @ SA", "starts_at": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898717", "label": "SAC @ LAL", "starts_at": "2026-10-09T02:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898395", "label": "HOU VS DAL", "starts_at": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401908940", "label": "MEM @ CHI", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401902645", "label": "LAC @ TOR", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898396", "label": "ATL @ IND", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401906510", "label": "DET @ WSH", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898397", "label": "MIN @ MIA", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898398", "label": "PHI @ BOS", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898399", "label": "SAC @ GS", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898720", "label": "SA @ PHX", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898400", "label": "DAL VS HOU", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401898401", "label": "ORL @ CLE", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401901821", "label": "MIL @ CHA", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401908941", "label": "CHI @ DEN", "starts_at": "2026-10-12T01:00Z", "season_type": 1, "status": "outside_regular_season", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401909088", "label": "BOS @ DET", "starts_at": "2026-10-20T19:00Z", "season_type": 2, "status": "not_due", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401909089", "label": "PHI @ NY", "starts_at": "2026-10-20T23:00Z", "season_type": 2, "status": "not_due", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} }, { "game_id": "401909090", "label": "OKC @ SA", "starts_at": "2026-10-21T01:30Z", "season_type": 2, "status": "not_due", "mapped_market_observed": true, "timely_observations": 0, "valid_predictions": 0, "confirmation_predictions": 0, "prediction_passes": 0, "exclusion_reasons": {} } ], "limitations": [ "Denominator is the retained NBA schedule for queried dates; absence from these snapshots is not proof no game exists.", "Mapped means a retained observation identifies the game, not that a market is currently open.", "Timely means within the frozen 30-to-25-minute window. Eligibility still uses the original collector gates.", "A missing observation is a collection gap, not a no-edge prediction. Stale schedule coverage remains explicitly stale." ] }, "rest_study": { "classification": "archive_only_development_ablation", "admitted_games": 488, "archive_rest_usable": 472, "pooled": { "games": 303, "fallback": 0, "teams": [ "ATL", "BKN", "BOS", "CHA", "CHI", "CLE", "DAL", "DEN", "DET", "GSW", "HOU", "IND", "LAC", "LAL", "MEM", "MIA", "MIL", "MIN", "NOP", "NYK", "OKC", "ORL", "PHI", "PHX", "POR", "SAC", "SAS", "TOR", "UTA", "WAS" ], "brier_baseline": 0.22546075477202318, "brier_candidate": 0.2258518881115268, "paired_brier_difference": 0.00039113333950355526, "paired_log_loss_difference": 0.0019523200547179175 }, "uncertainty": { "paired_7_calendar_day_block_95": [ -0.0017794536726782391, 0.0019183960236843589 ], "blocks_per_fold": { "0": 3, "1": 3, "2": 3 }, "replicates": 1000, "descriptive_only": true }, "promotion": "not_authorized", "limitations": [ "Current historical settlement values and reported settlement times lack contemporaneous revision/publication certification.", "Rest uses archived schedules; omitted games and historical schedule revisions remain unverified.", "Only Oct-Dec2025 development is tested; five-season NBA rest coverage is not five-season Kalshi evaluation.", "January-June2026 excluded as already examined; no fresh confirmation claim.", "Few seven-day blocks and dependent teams limit uncertainty; no returns or fill claims." ], "folds": [ { "start": "2025-11-16", "end_exclusive": "2025-12-01", "training_games": 185, "rest_coefficient": -0.10585493844231811, "full_population": { "games": 108, "fallback": 0, "teams": [ "ATL", "BKN", "BOS", "CHA", "CHI", "CLE", "DAL", "DEN", "DET", "GSW", "HOU", "IND", "LAC", "LAL", "MEM", "MIA", "MIL", "MIN", "NOP", "NYK", "OKC", "ORL", "PHI", "PHX", "POR", "SAC", "SAS", "TOR", "UTA", "WAS" ], "brier_baseline": 0.1942358512592593, "brier_candidate": 0.19230220769830775, "paired_brier_difference": -0.0019336435609516667, "paired_log_loss_difference": -0.0038546451359249933 } }, { "start": "2025-12-01", "end_exclusive": "2025-12-16", "training_games": 291, "rest_coefficient": -0.15646727627890236, "full_population": { "games": 86, "fallback": 0, "teams": [ "ATL", "BKN", "BOS", "CHA", "CHI", "CLE", "DAL", "DEN", "DET", "GSW", "HOU", "IND", "LAC", "LAL", "MEM", "MIA", "MIL", "MIN", "NOP", "NYK", "OKC", "ORL", "PHI", "PHX", "POR", "SAC", "SAS", "TOR", "UTA", "WAS" ], "brier_baseline": 0.24613780947321565, "brier_candidate": 0.24819331859954635, "paired_brier_difference": 0.002055509126330703, "paired_log_loss_difference": 0.006946087681197352 } }, { "start": "2025-12-16", "end_exclusive": "2026-01-01", "training_games": 376, "rest_coefficient": -0.08118581236163569, "full_population": { "games": 109, "fallback": 0, "teams": [ "ATL", "BKN", "BOS", "CHA", "CHI", "CLE", "DAL", "DEN", "DET", "GSW", "HOU", "IND", "LAC", "LAL", "MEM", "MIA", "MIL", "MIN", "NOP", "NYK", "OKC", "ORL", "PHI", "PHX", "POR", "SAC", "SAS", "TOR", "UTA", "WAS" ], "brier_baseline": 0.2400851848185916, "brier_candidate": 0.2414665896038018, "paired_brier_difference": 0.0013814047852102457, "paired_log_loss_difference": 0.003765973492444551 } } ] }, "productivity": { "generated_at": "2026-10-05T19:02:37.552519+00:00", "window_start": "2026-10-04T19:02:37.552519+00:00", "background_assignments": 128, "completed": 109, "accepted_research_reports": 19, "accepted_independent_test_tasks": 15, "manager_assignments": 47, "observed_usage_wait_seconds": 12759.2, "limitations": [ "Accepted reports are research output, not better predictions. Local applied patches are not deployments.", "Usage holds are observed wall-clock intervals to the next differently phased event; concurrent task waits overlap and are not unique elapsed time.", "The last-30 implementation delivery window differs from the last-24-hour activity window.", "Operator integrations are reported separately; historical host promotion rows are not rewritten." ], "delivery": { "window": "Most recent 30 background implementation assignments, including unfinished work.", "assignments": 30, "applied": 8, "median_created_to_applied_seconds": 657.1500000000001 } }, "comparisons": [ { "label": "2025-11-01 to 2025-12-01 (end excluded)", "n": 213, "first_date": "2025-11-01", "last_date": "2025-11-30", "models": { "market": { "brier": 0.18381842723004693, "log_loss": 0.5461891463037347, "calibration": [ { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 0.1, "n": 2, "predicted": 0.07500000000000001, "observed": 0.0 }, { "lower": 0.1, "upper": 0.2, "n": 15, "predicted": 0.15066666666666664, 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"lower": 0.0, "upper": 0.1, "n": 5, "predicted": 0.06996914854785567, "observed": 0.4 }, { "lower": 0.1, "upper": 0.2, "n": 34, "predicted": 0.1642049432672701, "observed": 0.14705882352941177 }, { "lower": 0.2, "upper": 0.3, "n": 64, "predicted": 0.252616617038851, "observed": 0.21875 }, { "lower": 0.3, "upper": 0.4, "n": 78, "predicted": 0.34970944784762054, "observed": 0.358974358974359 }, { "lower": 0.4, "upper": 0.5, "n": 79, "predicted": 0.45005342019216665, "observed": 0.4430379746835443 }, { "lower": 0.5, "upper": 0.6, "n": 85, "predicted": 0.544221414216393, "observed": 0.47058823529411764 }, { "lower": 0.6, "upper": 0.7, "n": 92, "predicted": 0.6526947676454976, "observed": 0.6086956521739131 }, { "lower": 0.7, "upper": 0.8, "n": 96, "predicted": 0.7429168642581739, "observed": 0.7604166666666666 }, { "lower": 0.8, "upper": 0.9, "n": 50, "predicted": 0.8397797787323763, "observed": 0.82 }, { "lower": 0.9, "upper": 1.0, "n": 4, "predicted": 0.9295158247607471, "observed": 1.0 } ] } } }, ">=15pp": { "n": 340, "first_date": "2025-04-26", "last_date": "2026-05-15", "models": { "market": { "brier": 0.2126380147058823, "log_loss": 0.6090273745425822, "calibration": [ { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 0.1, "n": 5, "predicted": 0.06899999999999999, "observed": 0.0 }, { "lower": 0.1, "upper": 0.2, "n": 23, "predicted": 0.14913043478260865, "observed": 0.08695652173913043 }, { "lower": 0.2, "upper": 0.3, "n": 26, "predicted": 0.24615384615384617, "observed": 0.11538461538461539 }, { "lower": 0.3, "upper": 0.4, "n": 58, "predicted": 0.3498275862068965, "observed": 0.4482758620689655 }, { "lower": 0.4, "upper": 0.5, "n": 50, "predicted": 0.4522, "observed": 0.48 }, { "lower": 0.5, "upper": 0.6, "n": 52, "predicted": 0.555096153846154, "observed": 0.4807692307692308 }, { "lower": 0.6, "upper": 0.7, "n": 61, "predicted": 0.6568852459016392, "observed": 0.5573770491803278 }, { "lower": 0.7, "upper": 0.8, "n": 27, "predicted": 0.7529629629629631, "observed": 0.7037037037037037 }, { "lower": 0.8, "upper": 0.9, "n": 30, "predicted": 0.8465, "observed": 0.7666666666666667 }, { "lower": 0.9, "upper": 1.0, "n": 8, "predicted": 0.91625, "observed": 1.0 } ] }, "elo": { "brier": 0.26554148415760054, "log_loss": 0.7347856382412662, "calibration": [ { "lower": 0.1, "upper": 0.2, "n": 10, "predicted": 0.15217417278420012, "observed": 0.5 }, { "lower": 0.2, "upper": 0.3, "n": 23, "predicted": 0.2507406573355375, "observed": 0.4782608695652174 }, { "lower": 0.3, "upper": 0.4, "n": 56, "predicted": 0.3528397977244587, "observed": 0.35714285714285715 }, { "lower": 0.4, "upper": 0.5, "n": 64, "predicted": 0.44973981557158427, "observed": 0.421875 }, { "lower": 0.5, "upper": 0.6, "n": 73, "predicted": 0.5437408053116017, "observed": 0.5616438356164384 }, { "lower": 0.6, "upper": 0.7, "n": 59, "predicted": 0.643443312974481, "observed": 0.559322033898305 }, { "lower": 0.7, "upper": 0.8, "n": 46, "predicted": 0.7463207462944285, "observed": 0.5 }, { "lower": 0.8, "upper": 0.9, "n": 9, "predicted": 0.8407977452036508, "observed": 0.4444444444444444 } ] } } } }, "confirmation": { "frozen_at": "2026-10-04T22:52:16.311796+00:00", "earliest_game_date": "2026-10-05", "model_id": "63b16db4c4706a3ce75ce496f376fa31272bc87cbc27aa30592cc7847661974a", "minimum_games_before_review": 300, "minimum_calendar_days": 60, "endpoint": "first 300 admitted games after at least 60 calendar days", "primary_metric": "paired Brier difference versus calibrated market", "acceptance": "Only evaluate at frozen endpoint; upper paired game-bootstrap 95% bound below zero; descriptive result alone does not authorize trading" }, "service": { "status": "waiting", "last_success_at": "2026-10-05T19:02:37.300375+00:00", "interval_seconds": 120, "consecutive_failures": 0, "next_run_at": 1791227036.0107992 }, "receipt_audit": { "audited_at": "2026-10-05T19:02:37.511541+00:00", "observations": 41, "eligible_predictions": 0, "receipts_checked": 62, "settlements": 2, "passed": true, "scope": "Independent raw-receipt and arithmetic audit; no inference of model validity or executable returns" }, "cycle_coverage": { "collection_mode": "all_open_markets", "discovery_complete": true, "discovery_pages": 1, "discovered_contracts": 72, "canonical_games": 36, "mapping_failures": 0, "coverage_complete": true, "schedule": { "dates": [ "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-10", "2026-10-11", "2026-10-20" ], "scheduled_games": 36, "mapped_games": 36, "missing_open_market": [], "scope": "Today and tomorrow Eastern, plus every date in discovered open NBA winner contracts" } }, "execution": { "version": "prospective-paper-v2", "frozen_at": "2026-10-04T22:58:32.897382+00:00", "amendment": "Target 30 minutes before scheduled tipoff; admit first observed book at most 300 seconds late (30-to-25-minute window). This explicit sampling amendment is frozen before any eligible game." }, "paper": { "classification": "prospective_paper_research", "observations": 41, "passes_by_reason": { "preseason_or_other_nonregular_season": 38, "before_decision_window": 3 }, "hypothetical_intents": 0, "qualified_fills": 0, "settled_observations": 4, "eligible_settled_observations": 0, "brier_model": null, "brier_market": null, "last_cycle_at": "2026-10-05T19:02:37.300375+00:00", "cycles": 99, "source_failures": 12, "coverage": { "unique_games": 38, "teams": [ "ATL", "BKN", "BOS", "CHA", "CHI", "CLE", "DAL", "DEN", "DET", "GSW", "HOU", "IND", "LAC", "LAL", "MEM", "MIA", "MIL", "MIN", "NOP", "NYK", "OKC", "ORL", "PHI", "PHX", "POR", "SAC", "SAS", "TOR", "UTA", "WAS" ] }, "confirmation_observations": 0, "settled_confirmation_observations": 0, "metrics_by_model": [], "limitations": [ "Public REST receipt times are not exchange event timestamps.", "Pregame regular-season predictions only; preseason observations are excluded.", "Fees and execution are not verified; no filled trades or ROI claimed.", "Coverage is per completed cycle; absent markets, mapping gaps and page guards remain explicit. It does not prove every NBA game has a tradable contract.", "Historical Elo inputs lack original publication receipts; frozen model is research only.", "Settlement revisions and fractional settlements excluded from binary Brier.", "Metrics are separated by model; a later model never replaces an earlier prediction." ] }, "features": [ { "name": "schedule_rest", "status": "available_for_development", "coverage": { "rows": 12300, "games": 6150, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2021-22", "2022-23", "2023-24", "2024-25", "2025-26" ], "date_min": "2021-10-19 00:00:00", "date_max": "2026-04-12 00:00:00", "with_prior_date": 12150, "missing_initial_history": 150, "back_to_back_team_games": 2137, "by_season": [ { "season": "2021-22", "rows": 2460, "games": 1230, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2021-22" ], "date_min": "2021-10-19 00:00:00", "date_max": "2022-04-10 00:00:00", "with_prior_date": 2430 }, { "season": "2022-23", "rows": 2460, "games": 1230, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2022-23" ], "date_min": "2022-10-18 00:00:00", "date_max": "2023-04-09 00:00:00", "with_prior_date": 2430 }, { "season": "2023-24", "rows": 2460, "games": 1230, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2023-24" ], "date_min": "2023-10-24 00:00:00", "date_max": "2024-04-14 00:00:00", "with_prior_date": 2430 }, { "season": "2024-25", "rows": 2460, "games": 1230, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2024-25" ], "date_min": "2024-10-22 00:00:00", "date_max": "2025-04-13 00:00:00", "with_prior_date": 2430 }, { "season": "2025-26", "rows": 2460, "games": 1230, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2025-26" ], "date_min": "2025-10-21 00:00:00", "date_max": "2026-04-12 00:00:00", "with_prior_date": 2430 } ] }, "contemporaneous_limitations": [ "No score, outcome, minutes, or player participation used.", "Archived schedule corrections lack historical receipt time. Match target to decision-time schedule before replay.", "First game each season remains unknown. Missing out-of-archive games, including any NBA Cup final, can overstate rest.", "This is day-level calendar rest, not exact elapsed hours or travel fatigue." ], "recommended_next_step": "Use as a development covariate after target-game as-of schedule join; retain explicit missingness." }, { "name": "injury_status", "status": "available_for_development", "coverage": { "rows": 21498, "games": 10749, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2017-18", "2018-19", "2019-20", "2020-21", "2021-22", "2022-23", "2023-24", "2024-25", "2025-26" ], "date_min": "2017-10-17 00:00:00", "date_max": "2026-04-12 00:00:00", "accepted_team_games": 17696, "status_rows": 87551, "five_season_team_games": 12300, "five_season_accepted": 12201, "five_season_gaps": 99, "gap_reasons": { "no_parsed_report_for_case": 75, "team_not_submitted_before_cutoff": 11, "no_snapshot_before_cutoff": 7, "reported_tip_times_disagree": 6 }, "accepted_timestamp_violations": 0, "dated_roster_pairs": 538 }, "contemporaneous_limitations": [ "No independent historical publication witness; dated reconstruction only.", "Fixed sampled report slots are not guaranteed latest pre-cutoff reports.", "Unlisted players are not automatically healthy; full eligible roster is not established.", "Current source hashes verify current bytes, not pregame availability." ], "recommended_next_step": "Join exact game/team and enforce report_at AND document_latest_at <= each Kalshi decision time; retain missing cases and add prospective receipts." }, { "name": "historical_roster_membership", "status": "blocked", "coverage": { "rows": 21498, "games": 10749, "teams": 30, "seasons": [ "2017-18", "2018-19", "2019-20", "2020-21", "2021-22", "2022-23", "2023-24", "2024-25", "2025-26" ], "date_min": "2017-10-17 00:00:00", "date_max": "2026-04-12 00:00:00", "eligible_team_games": 0, "transaction_rows": 9836, "transaction_known_at_present": 0, "transaction_effective_at_present": 0, "reviewed_article_events": 22, "publication_witness_verified": 0 }, "contemporaneous_limitations": [ "Retrospective candidate rosters preserve observed appearances but that is not a point-in-time eligibility certificate.", "Later distinct-team signings and revised articles cannot be backdated to remove players at an earlier decision.", "Current rosters and same-game boxscore participation must not be used as historical pregame rosters." ], "recommended_next_step": "Resolve historical knowledge/effective-time evidence or collect prospective roster snapshots; keep this feature disabled until then." }, { "name": "announced_starting_lineups", "status": "blocked", "coverage": { "announced_lineup_snapshots_verified": 0, "projected_composition_rows": 171428, "projected_composition_games": 6150, "projected_composition_teams": 30 }, "contemporaneous_limitations": [ "Existing composition study uses projected top five, not observed announced starters.", "Actual starter/lineup fields reconstructed from same-game boxscores or play-by-play would leak future participation.", "Previously explored 2024-26 confirmation seasons are not fresh holdout data." ], "recommended_next_step": "Record official announced starters with source URL, raw hash, publisher time and receipt time; independently validate before model use." }, { "name": "injury_minutes_or_player_strength_adjustment", "status": "blocked", "coverage": { "development_rows": { "training_rows": 543, "validation_rows": 519, "refit_rows": 1062, "teams": 29 }, "confirmation_rows": { "rows": 441, "games": 220, "teams": 28 }, "cleveland_kind": "Previously examined Cleveland diagnostic; no selection or fresh-confirmation claim.", "plan_population": "All explicitly reported same-day Questionable injuries/illnesses on the fixed cached report dates. No inferred full rosters.", "plan_evidence": "Dated document reconstruction; no independently witnessed historical publication." }, "contemporaneous_limitations": [ "Existing Questionable subset has 28 confirmation teams and is not all-player, all-team validation.", "A small player FGA error improvement is not evidence of game-win-probability or Kalshi edge.", "Same-game realized minutes are training labels only; estimates must use earlier-date inputs and fold-specific fits." ], "recommended_next_step": "Require source-ready rosters plus chronological out-of-fold minutes/strength estimates before testing incremental game probability against market baseline." } ], "provenance": [ { "source": "kalshi_history/backtest-runs/20261004-v1/summary.json", "sha256": "21c216f10b843f6ce2e43da504cb3ea7ebb9ca96c163ab997892bfaec5fbed56" }, { "source": "kalshi_market_diagnostics/report.json", "sha256": "3db4a9932d805d16a420dd390edbe519eca45d8c7badfdfaa99df2bd30f572e8" }, { "source": "kalshi_market_diagnostics/confirmation-manifest.json", "sha256": "030448ec928c44a973f075a112528c56be2d38b0005a42bf0d9165ec8f6e4469" }, { "source": "kalshi_forward_paper/latest.json", "sha256": "d34a69498f06b211f68a0c6551d3bad0472ce9dc8750e97c591fe7b405bb84fb" }, { "source": "kalshi_feature_readiness/report.json", "sha256": "eee5ccb8a072dee6facca74c818014d8a09b72eabbcf0ac41f227287ec2988ad" }, { "source": "kalshi_forward_paper/execution-policy-v2.json", "sha256": "c02bf33054c99f84b78f0a2f94c17e71010f8bd89e7712ab08e65ae3b647149b" }, { "source": "kalshi_forward_paper/service.json", "sha256": "1d0719deed2eef889de6f73c698f89d8d1c8e550f8a810eed9c191b92fc3e3a6" }, { "source": "kalshi_forward_paper/independent-audit.json", "sha256": "47f3bd5c246ecf72c9c20e6e8a0a4cc7fd17dd66445987ae82547c8f97d63c8b" }, { "source": "kalshi_rest_experiment/v3/report.json", "sha256": "f20469b2616721491cd79936109b1efc450e658069348ca72b815becbc11eb4e" }, { "source": "workspace_productivity/latest.json", "sha256": "9a359829fb8e1a19892e54d10f9206ba4a70df27db6660b2e24bbd04140359ca" }, { "source": "kalshi_collection_coverage/latest.json", "sha256": "95551a910e9a5402831e068679fb23355b7a4b4585880b5658c0da9482848fdc" } ] }