{
  "schema": "nba-forecast-explanation/v1",
  "generation_id": "b7340cacf53effdd9136fb2ee125a61d",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-05T18:35:39.938325+00:00",
  "collector_status": "empty_slate",
  "forecast": {
    "event": {
      "GAME_ID": "espn:401909088",
      "EVENT_ID": "401909088",
      "GAME_DATE": "2026-10-20 00:00:00",
      "TIPOFF_UTC": "2026-10-20T19:00:00+00:00",
      "SEASON": "2026-27",
      "SEASON_TYPE": "Regular Season",
      "HOME_TEAM_ID": 1610612765,
      "AWAY_TEAM_ID": 1610612738,
      "HOME_TEAM": "DET",
      "AWAY_TEAM": "BOS",
      "STATE": "pre",
      "COMPLETED": false
    },
    "captured_at": "2026-09-16T19:30:30.266984+00:00",
    "model_id": "ac83feb6154f7224-7e891c272e06",
    "training_last_date": "2026-04-12",
    "source_sha256": "22eb80c436739c48e5bfb5eafbf3d7edc99a1ffdd7754959662da1e8040841d6",
    "players": [
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        "name": "Mike Conley",
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          "candidate": 8.3833333333,
          "incumbent": 8.3833333333
        },
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        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 20.5733333333,
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          "p_play": 0.2008677233
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "Paul George",
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          "candidate": 15.9,
          "incumbent": 15.9
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        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Jayson Tatum",
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          "candidate": 28.1,
          "incumbent": 28.1
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 34.8766316361,
        "recorded_status": "Day-To-Day",
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 36.2033333333,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
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        ],
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      {
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          "incumbent": 11.9333333333
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Mitchell Robinson",
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          "incumbent": 0.0
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
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        ],
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      {
        "name": "Neemias Queta",
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          "candidate": 1.65,
          "incumbent": 1.65
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        ],
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      {
        "name": "Payton Pritchard",
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          "candidate": 10.55,
          "incumbent": 10.55
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          "min5": 30.29,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Luka Garza",
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          "incumbent": 0.0
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          "last_min": 38.0333333333,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
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        ],
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      {
        "name": "Sam Hauser",
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          "candidate": 5.4,
          "incumbent": 5.4
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 25.72,
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          "p_play": 0.4721196223
        },
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Ron Harper Jr.",
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          "candidate": 6.7833333333,
          "incumbent": 6.7833333333
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          "last_min": 36.65,
          "min5": 13.85,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Baylor Scheierman",
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          "candidate": 4.05,
          "incumbent": 4.05
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        "candidate_minutes": 15.5056414179,
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          "last_min": 38.8,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Dillon Mitchell",
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          "candidate": 6.5333333333,
          "incumbent": 6.5333333333
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        "candidate_minutes": 17.4233622609,
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 12.0,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
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        ],
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      {
        "name": "Jordan Walsh",
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          "last_min": 33.1333333333,
          "min5": 20.78,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Hugo Gonzalez",
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          "incumbent": 0.0
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Amari Williams",
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          "incumbent": 0.0
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          "last_min": 9.5,
          "min5": 8.45,
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      {
        "name": "Chris Cenac Jr.",
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          "candidate": 5.7833333333,
          "incumbent": 5.7833333333
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        "candidate_minutes": 21.1037812022,
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          "min5": 12.0,
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          "p_play": 0.1939595011
        },
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "Gary Harris",
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          "incumbent": 0.0
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        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "Taurean Prince",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 6.65,
          "candidate": 6.65,
          "incumbent": 6.65
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        "candidate_minutes": 24.8401259305,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 31.0333333333,
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          "p_play": 0.2345898052
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        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "John Collins",
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        "points": {
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          "candidate": 12.3333333333,
          "incumbent": 12.3333333333
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        "candidate_minutes": 24.0931984022,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 22.6666666667,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.222546673
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Kevin Huerter",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 7.7333333333,
          "candidate": 7.7333333333,
          "incumbent": 7.7333333333
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 21.6578005806,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "last_min": 20.4166666667,
          "min5": 22.99,
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          "p_play": 0.4845432403
        },
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "Duncan Robinson",
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        "points": {
          "baseline": 9.45,
          "candidate": 9.45,
          "incumbent": 9.45
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        "candidate_minutes": 20.1124488438,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "last_min": 21.7166666667,
          "min5": 24.78,
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          "p_play": 0.3180576303
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "Javonte Green",
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          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
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        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
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          "last_min": 11.8666666667,
          "min5": 15.2666666667,
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          "p_play": 0.4235803252
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          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
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      },
      {
        "name": "Paul Reed",
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          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
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        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 21.7166666667,
          "min5": 15.4666666667,
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          "p_play": 0.482717489
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Isaiah Joe",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 9.45,
          "candidate": 9.45,
          "incumbent": 9.45
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        "candidate_minutes": 19.2466910626,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 16.5333333333,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.2429724312
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        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Cade Cunningham",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 26.1333333333,
          "candidate": 26.1333333333,
          "incumbent": 26.1333333333
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 33.316318896,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 21.8166666667,
          "min5": 23.69,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.638797891
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Jalen Duren",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 10.85,
          "candidate": 10.85,
          "incumbent": 10.85
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 26.4694172996,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 29.3766666667,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.5220627632
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Wendell Moore Jr.",
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        "points": {
          "baseline": 0.0,
          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 0.0,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 5.5,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.2091393007
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Ausar Thompson",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 9.4666666667,
          "candidate": 9.4666666667,
          "incumbent": 9.4666666667
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 22.9786358145,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 21.7166666667,
          "min5": 25.3633333333,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.6316775463
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Ronald Holland II",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 4.0,
          "candidate": 4.0,
          "incumbent": 4.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 8.0293159939,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 17.9525910364,
          "last_min": 20.45,
          "min5": 20.4133333333,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.5084732099
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Elijah Harkless",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 5.7833333333,
          "candidate": 5.7833333333,
          "incumbent": 5.7833333333
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        "candidate_minutes": 18.6270644394,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
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          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 32.4291666667,
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          "p_play": 0.2234657222
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Ugonna Onyenso",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 0.0,
          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 0.0,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 12.0,
          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 12.0,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.1939595011
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Isaac Jones",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 0.0,
          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 0.0,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 7.1477777778,
          "last_min": 9.55,
          "min5": 5.8166666667,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.1571123304
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Chaz Lanier",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 0.0,
          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 0.0,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 7.706372549,
          "last_min": 5.8666666667,
          "min5": 6.3633333333,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.4983938388
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Tolu Smith",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 0.0,
          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 0.0,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 9.8299578059,
          "last_min": 5.8666666667,
          "min5": 8.1433333333,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.2863077263
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Daniss Jenkins",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 10.8166666667,
          "candidate": 10.8166666667,
          "incumbent": 10.8166666667
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 20.628982737,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 18.9888316151,
          "last_min": 19.15,
          "min5": 24.4733333333,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.6416415008
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Ebuka Okorie",
        "team_id": "1610612765",
        "points": {
          "baseline": 0.0,
          "candidate": 0.0,
          "incumbent": 0.0
        },
        "candidate_minutes": 0.0,
        "recorded_status": "Not listed",
        "recorded_inputs": {
          "prior_mpg": 12.0,
          "last_min": 0.0,
          "min5": 12.0,
          "days_rest": 120,
          "p_play": 0.1939595011
        },
        "known_rules": [
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "team minutes outside 180\u2013300; incumbent used",
          "Assist projection uses the incumbent because tracking coverage was insufficient or stale."
        ],
        "uncertainty": null
      }
    ],
    "meaning": "Recorded model inputs and explicit pipeline rules, not a causal feature-attribution analysis. Player estimates are not game-total probabilities or betting recommendations."
  },
  "uncertainty_note": "No calibrated interval is available."
}